Housing Is on a Roll! Home Values Up, Mortgage Rates Down

Housing Is on a Roll! Home Values Up, Mortgage Rates Down

The housing market has been a rollercoaster this year, and this past week took us on another wild ride in terms of home values and mortgage rates.



Recent reports from CoreLogic, Black Knight, and Zillow confirm that in many areas of the country, home price cooldowns were just mild corrections. Not only that, but many of the new numbers have eclipsed the ones we saw at the peak of the market in June of 2022.

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Why the Housing Market is Surging

Low inventory is still the main factor behind the surge in home prices.


According to Black Knight’s May 2023 Mortgage Monitor, inventory improved modestly in May but was still 51% lower than the pre-pandemic supply of homes for sale. Many major markets have seen inventory levels decrease by an astounding 95% since the beginning of 2023.


Zillow’s June 2023 Market Report shows there were 28% fewer new listings last month than there were in June 2022, up from the 25% year-over-year decline in May.


According to Zillow:

It is worth pausing to contemplate just how low the trend ran in June, which is normally among the two or three busiest months of the year for new listings. This month only 376,500 new listings came to market, which is more comparable to the shoulders of the winter market doldrums, like February (about 341,500 average new listings) and October (about 384,100), than to the average new listings in June (505,100) in Zillow’s listings data which extends back to 2018.

The driving force behind the inventory shortage continues to be mortgage rates. Even though they have improved recently (more on that below), they remain much higher than pre-pandemic levels. The bond markets that determine mortgage rates are still reacting to recent Federal Reserve news that more hikes to the Fed Funds rate are likely coming in the near future, as well as economic data reports that show the economy is not slowing down as quickly as anticipated.


Mortgage Rates See Some Improvement

Housing inventory and mortgage rates are closely connected, as the record-low home inventory comes largely due to sellers feeling trapped by their low mortgage rates.


While mortgage rates are still much higher than all of us would like, they did improve fairly significantly recently following the release of the June Producer Price Index (PPI) – another closely watched economic indicator that measures price changes for goods and services (similar to the Consumer Price Index, but instead showing changes in wholesale prices rather than retail prices).


The latest PPI report showed that overall producer inflation increased by just 0.1% in June, which was lower than expected. And on a year-over-year basis, producer inflation fell from 0.9% to only 0.1%.


The markets saw this as a positive signal that inflation is moderating, which helped mortgage rates last week. According to MBS Highway’s market update from July 13:

Producer inflation is at extremely low levels and can lead to lower consumer inflation as producers can either pass on the savings or capture more margin. The Fed has to be pleased with both the CPI and PPI readings for June, but they will still be hiking late this month on July 26 by [.25%].

Basically, we are on the right track to lower mortgage rates that actually stick. As rates drop, it will encourage some sellers who have been reluctant to sacrifice their low interest rates to be less wary of putting their homes on the market, which could help the inventory problem. However, increased home affordability will also bring more first-time homebuyers into the market who will not be adding to the number of homes for sale.



What This Means for You

Our advice remains the same: if you are ready to buy a home, schedule a meeting with a mortgage advisor to find out how much you can afford with the current market conditions.


If you can make the numbers work, we still believe the best strategy is to pull the trigger on buying a home you love sooner rather than later. Your mortgage payment might be a bit higher than you would like initially, but you will be able to lock in your housing payment and immediately start building equity through appreciation. Rates will come down like they always do, and you will be able to refinance to a permanently lower housing expense.


If you’re ready to get started, we’d love to help you!

Overcoming Housing Market Fears

By Luminate Marketing Team • 06 May, 2024
The recent headlines broadcasting mortgage rates surpassing the 7% mark have instilled a sense of apprehension among potential homebuyers. In a market perceived as increasingly unaffordable, it's easy to feel discouraged. However, with the right mortgage strategy, you can transform this challenging market into an opportunity.  Historical Perspective on Mortgage Rates While current rates hovering around 7% seem daunting, a historical review reveals a broader context. During the early 1980s, mortgage rates soared to 18% and even in more stable times, rates have frequently fluctuated above 10%. This historical perspective is vital because it demonstrates that while today’s rates are higher than in recent years, they remain within a historical long-term normal rate range.

Why Cash Buyers Dominate the 2024 Real Estate Market

By Luminate Marketing Team • 28 Apr, 2024
The 2024 real estate market is ROUGH. Losing to multiple offers, emotional frustration, and the stress from competing offers is discouraging to say the least. Notably 32% of home sales are being clinched by all-cash buyers, the strategic advantage of wielding cash has never been clearer. This resurgence in all-cash transactions underscores a market where immediacy and certainty reign supreme, especially as home prices continue their upward trajectory against a backdrop of scarce inventory. Within this context, it’s prudent to evaluate every option that can help you sell an existing home and get your offer accepted on a new home. Navigating the Alternatives iBuyers : These entities provide a quick, straightforward selling process for homeowners looking to bypass the traditional market. By making instant cash offers, iBuyers appeal to those seeking immediacy and convenience. However, this often comes at a cost, including service fees and potentially lower offer prices, as the iBuyer model is designed for speed over maximizing seller profits. Power Buyers : Power buyer programs cater to homeowners wishing to purchase their next home before selling their current one. They typically employ financial tools like bridge loans to facilitate this process, offering a solution to the timing mismatch between buying and selling. While this approach adds flexibility, it can also introduce complexity and additional costs into the transaction. But it's important to remember that not all of the innovative iBuyer and Power Buyer programs are the same. It's all about finding the right fit for your situation. Luminate's Unique Approach At Luminate Home Loans, we've carved out our own niche in the market. We offer a program that turns our clients into cash buyers. This isn't just a minor perk; it's a game-changer. Being a cash buyer makes your offer far more appealing to sellers, cutting through the delays that often come with loan approvals. Our approach is designed with you, the homeowner, in mind. We give you the immediate advantage of a cash offer, coupled with the flexibility to choose the best financing option for you down the line. It's about giving you control and confidence in your home-buying journey. If you're navigating the complexities of buying and selling homes, our program might just be the solution you've been searching for. We focus on ensuring our processes are straightforward, your personal information is secure, and the transition to your new home is as smooth as possible. With Luminate, you're not just moving houses. You're stepping into a well-thought-out system designed to get you into your dream home with ease and certainty. If this sounds like what you need, we're here to make it happen.

Understanding Economic Shifts: How Rising Fast Food Prices Intersect with the Housing Market

By Luminate Marketing Team • 21 Apr, 2024
Have you been noticing the prices of fast food and other products going up? Well, you're not alone. Across the country, families are feeling the financial pain of previously low-priced items suddenly costing double (or triple!) what they’re used to. For example, a lunch for two in California at a fast food chain can easily be $40 nowadays, which is a big jump for places that tout “cheap fast food.” But why exactly is this happening, and what does it have to do with you buying a home? Keep reading for more insights. Why Are Prices Going Up? Starting in April of 2024, the minimum wage for fast-food and healthcare facility employees in California was increased. As a result, their wages went from $16/hour to $20/hour in order to provide better wages and living conditions for these workers. This rise in minimum wage, while much needed for the economy, is happening all across the nation. And when businesses have to pay their employees more, they often raise their prices to cover the costs. Which, unfortunately, means the burger and fries you love might cost more now. What Does This Have to Do with Housing? In recent news, you may have heard of President Biden’s housing plan to help first-time homebuyers and to reduce housing costs. This plan would give money to first-time homebuyers and some families looking to sell their homes. But just like with the fast-food industry, the effects can vary. In some places like California, where not enough houses are available, making homes more affordable might not be enough. In other places, it might help a bit more. So, What's the Best Move for Homebuyers? If you're thinking about buying a home in the near future, it's good to know about these changes and plans. By staying informed and working with an expert lender, you can take advantage of any changes as soon as they happen. But even though extra money in the economy sounds great, it's important to look at the whole picture, like how many houses are available and how much they cost. If more homes become available and the costs of borrowing money for a home go down, this could be a better outcome for buyers vs money that is thrown into the economy. Conclusion Understanding these changes can help you make better, informed choices about your financial future. Whether you're saving up for a big purchase or just deciding where to grab lunch, let us help you save money where it counts! Reach out to us today so we can help you navigate your home-buying journey without having to skip out on the fries.
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